Field Goals, Blocks, and the Swing
Field goal protection is a nine-man wall with two guards of the edge; block teams attack either the A-gaps with a low surge and raised hands, or the edge with a speed rusher timing the snap. The math of a block is enormous: a blocked field goal is roughly a six-point swing in expected points, and blocks are disproportionately caused by operational failures — a slow snap-to-kick time — rather than heroic athleticism.
The deeper game-management layer: the field goal is a decision, and the decision is getting harder to defend at every level. Fourth-and-2 at the 25: the kick is three points at high probability; going for it keeps a touchdown drive alive at meaningful probability. The analytics answer and the traditional answer diverge most exactly here, and Tier 6's capstone question is not 'what would the book say?' but 'what are the inputs — kicker range at this level, offense's short-yardage quality, score, clock — and what do they imply today?'
How this changes by level
Youth: Field goals are rare to nonexistent; the try is often a run/pass play by rule or by necessity.
High School: A trustworthy kicker beyond 35 yards is a luxury. Fourth-down aggression at this level isn't edgy analytics — it's often just the correct response to having no kicker.
College: Hash placement matters for kickers here more than pro: a wide-hash kick from the college left hash has a real angle to manage.
Pro: 60-yard range changes late-game geography: the 'four-down territory' line creeps toward midfield, and end-of-half strategy plays for the 42-yard line, not the 25.
Open in the interactive app — animated simulation inside →